How many migrants come to the UK?

Immigration has consistently been one of the most debated topics in UK politics in recent years, including during the 2024 general election campaign.

Both Labour and the Conservative party have argued that current levels of immigration are too high, with Labour pledging in its election manifesto to “reduce net migration”. And on 12 May 2025 the government launched its white paper seeking to “restore control” over the immigration system. Migration was also reported as one of the key factors behind the disorder and rioting seen in the summer of 2024 (although as we and others wrote at the time, there are likely to have been a range of underlying causes).

Figures published in May 2025 estimate that net migration to the UK in the year to December 2024 was 431,000, compared with 860,000 the previous year—the biggest calendar year decrease on record.

Our updated explainer looks at how migration to the UK is measured, how net migration has changed in recent years, and why it is expected to decrease in the coming years.

This explainer is one of a series Full Fact is publishing exploring a range of key political topics. We’ll be updating these articles on a regular basis—this article was last updated on 22 May 2025 and the information in it is correct as of then.

How is migration to the UK measured?

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) publishes estimates of long-term international immigration to, and emigration from, the UK based on administrative data.

Subtracting the number of emigrants from the number of immigrants over a given period produces a figure for “net migration”. Net migration figures are perhaps those most commonly cited when talking about UK immigration policy, though Oxford University’s Migration Observatory says that the UK is “unusual in its choice to use net migration in policy debates as the main measure for discussing migration levels”.

The ONS defines a “long-term international migrant” as someone who has changed their country of usual residence for a period of at least a year (based on the UN’s recommended definition).

Current migration figures are based on a relatively new method of measuring annual migration flows (the number of long-term international migrants over a year) using administrative data. Because this method is still in development, the figures are designated as experimental statistics, or “official statistics in development”, by the UK Statistics Authority, as opposed to “national statistics”. Due to this, and lags in the availability of complete travel data, these migration statistics are often subject to revision, as the ONS explains here.

This data series goes back to June 2012. Previous estimates for long-term international migration were based on the International Passenger Survey (IPS), data from the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) on international migration through Northern

Ireland, and Home Office data. This data was published by the ONS from 1991 to 2020. An even earlier set of migration data, based solely on the IPS, dates back to 1964.

Net migration was at record levels in 2023…

According to the most recent estimates from the ONS, around 948,000 long-term immigrants arrived in the UK in the year ending December 2024.

Over the same period, emigration from the UK totalled an estimated 517,000, meaning net migration to the UK was estimated to be 431,000.

This represents an almost 50% fall compared to the same period the previous year, when net migration to the UK was 860,000.

As we’ve explained above these net migration estimates may be revised at a later date. For example, the initial estimate for net migration in the year ending June 2023 was 672,000, but this was subsequently revised to 906,000—the highest level on record.

The ONS has previously described a “marked change” in immigration patterns since 2021, saying: “The ending of free movement of those from the European Union coupled with the introduction of a new immigration system in January 2021, easing of restrictions after the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic, and external events such as the war in Ukraine have all had an impact.”

In the decade prior to the Covid-19 pandemic net migration figures had fluctuated, but with the exception of 2020 (when travel patterns were heavily disrupted due the the pandemic), were consistently above 150,000 per year.

Based on ONS administrative data, annual net migration between 2012 and 2024 totalled an estimated 4.68 million.

Looking back further, IPS-based figures show net migration was broadly negative in the 1960s and 1970s (in other words, more people were leaving the country than arriving), but was increasing by the mid-1990s. Since 1994, more people have arrived in the UK than have left every year, and net migration has not fallen below 100,000 since 1998, other than during the pandemic.

However it’s not true, as Reform UK claimed during the general election, that under the previous government more migrants arrived in the UK in two years than “between 1066 and 2010”.

… but is expected to fall considerably in the coming years

In May 2025 the government set out a number of measures intended to further control legal migration, saying net migration “must come down”. But existing projections and forecasts suggest this was already likely to happen.

In its latest publication the ONS said there has been a “continued decrease in long-term immigration since YE December 2023”, alongside a “continued increase in long-term emigration since YE June 2023”.

ONS projections published in January estimated that annual net migration will decrease to around 340,000 from the year ending mid-2028 onwards, though it noted: “there is always uncertainty in estimates and projections of migration”.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecasts net migration will reach a low of 258,000 in mid-2027, before increasing to around 340,000 by 2030.

Both these estimates are lower than current annual levels.

A number of explanations for this relative decrease have been put forward. In analysis published in December 2023, the Migration Observatory suggested that high levels of immigration in recent years would eventually lead to increased emigration, noting that “most migrants come to the UK for periods of only a few years, before emigrating again”.

The OBR says this, alongside changes to immigration rules introduced by the previous government, is also a factor in its forecasts, stating in March: “This sharp fall in net migration over the forecast is consistent with the tightening of visa policies, mainly regarding dependants of students and care workers, and higher levels of emigration following recent high levels of immigration.”

In its latest publication the ONS says the fall in the year to December 2024 has been “driven by a decrease in immigration from non-EU+ nationals, where we are seeing reductions in people arriving on work- and study-related visas, and an increase in emigration over the 18 months to December 2024, especially people leaving who originally came on study visas once pandemic travel restrictions to the UK were eased.”

It added: “The fall in total immigration in the latest year may be partly because of the immigration rule changes, which occurred at the beginning of 2024. Home Office visa application statistics also show the fall in 2024 for study visa applications (both main applicants and dependants). There have also been continued falls in applications for Health and Care Worker visas.”

Finally, both the Migration Observatory and the ONS note that arrivals to the UK under humanitarian visas (primarily those from Ukraine and Hong Kong) have decreased compared to 2022—when more than 160,000 people migrated to the UK via these routes—and are expected to “continue to decline in future”.

Despite the projected fall in annual net migration levels, however, immigration is still forecast to significantly increase the overall population of the UK over the next few years.

Who is migrating to the UK?

In the year ending December 2024, the vast majority of people who migrated to the UK (81%) were non-EU+ nationals. Thirteen percent were EU+ nationals (the EU, plus Norway, Iceland, Liechtenstein and Switzerland), with the remainder British nationals. The top five non-EU+ countries of origin were India (156,000 migrants), Pakistan (76,000), China (70,000), Nigeria (52,000) and Ukraine (23,000).

Between 2012 (when the current set of ONS migration statistics was first published) and 2018, net migration to the UK from the EU exceeded non-EU national net migration. However the number of EU immigrants has been falling since 2016, and net migration from the EU has actually been negative since 2021 (when free movement ended following Britain’s exit from the EU), meaning more EU nationals are leaving the UK than arriving.

The latest ONS publication contains information on reasons for migration for non-EU+ nationals only. These figures show that the most common reason for migration to the UK among non-EU+ nationals was study (33%), followed by dependents of people on work visas (19%).

Around 12% of non-EU+ nationals arrived in the UK to seek asylum.

The majority of migrants to the UK arrive here legally. However the number of migrants arriving via irregular methods (particularly by small boats) has increased considerably in recent years.

The ONS does not publish data on the proportion of migrants who arrive in the UK “legally” or “illegally”. However Home Office data shows that in the year ending December 2024 there were 43,630 irregular arrivals detected, 84% of whom arrived on small boats.

The vast majority of small boat arrivals claim asylum in the UK, although in the year ending December 2024 these claims accounted for around a third of asylum claims in the UK.

The ONS has said “by its very nature it is impossible to quantify accurately the number of people who are in the country illegally”, but added: “While ONS data do not identify illegal migrants separately, many will be included in the data. Those who overstay their visa would have been counted in ONS immigration figures by the International Passenger Survey (IPS) when they originally entered the country and those who arrived illegally and then subsequently claimed asylum will also be included.”

How does migration to the UK compare internationally?

The Migration Observatory suggests that the UK has experienced “broadly similar levels of migration compared to other high-income countries, on average, over the past few decades”.

Measuring the impact of migration by comparing the size of the foreign-born population as a percentage of the total population, the Observatory found that the share of foreign-born residents in the UK was similar to other ‘high-income’ countries. Both the UK and US foreign-born population share was 15% in 2023.

This was slightly higher than France (14%), but lower than Spain (17%) and Germany (18%).